Avatar: The Way Of Water expected to earn $525 million with global opening but needs $2 billion to break even

The sequel to James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way Of Water is set to recover the global box office from the current drought.

Deadline reported on Tuesday that the highly anticipated film has an opening-weekend global forecast of $525 million.

That’s a lot more than just an opening than some superhero movies like Shang-Chi or Black Adam have earned so far, which indicates huge interest from audience-goers.

Cameron, who had to skip the movie’s Monday night Hollywood premiere after testing positive for Covid-19, said in a profile on GQ that Avatar: The Way Of Water should earn somewhere north of $2 billion just to break even on 350. -400 million dollars. The budget and millions more spent on advertising and distribution.

The first Avatar movie, which premiered in 2009, grossed $2.9 billion.

The film’s recent release with 4K remakes and new higher frame rate cuts in some releases helped it earn another $75 million globally, while China will add to that total after the film was re-released in theaters before the sequel debuted.

According to Deadline, The Way Of Water will have the widest worldwide release ever for Disney (which owns 20th Century Studios). It plans to release Avatar 2 on more than 52,000 screens, more than the release of Avengers: Endgame.

The film is expected to earn around $175 million upon its opening in the United States and Canada, while overseas showings could bring in an additional $350 million.

Of that $350m figure, $100m is expected to come entirely from China, though concern about Covid cases and fatigue around the countries’ zero-Covid policies could weigh on that number.

The outlet notes the differences between tracking estimates, with some suggesting that the film may only bring in $150 million domestically.

Still, that shouldn’t dampen Disney’s hopes of breaking even – or turning a big profit – as it might just indicate that viewers are waiting to find the perfect show, with premium formats expected to be a huge draw.

Deadline notes that Avatar 2 could greatly exceed expectations, which Spider-Man: No Way Home did last year. The superhero movie was projected to gross $175-200 million, while Sony estimated it was $130 million less than that, but the film ended up opening a whopping $260.1 million domestically.

Whether The Way Of Water can also exceed its already high expectations depends largely on whether word of mouth is strong enough to get families to make unplanned trips to the theater to see the movie despite vacation plans.

Fans were drawn to the latest Spider-Man movie due to its connection to the wider Marvel universe and the return of former stars Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield, but viewers may also be drawn to Avatar 2 for its stunning, action-packed visuals. a story.

The somewhat older Avatar fan base is expected to act like viewers of the hit movie Top Gun: Maverick, which has been in theaters for months and grossed nearly $1.5 billion, according to Box Office Mojo.

Given Avatar 2’s technological advancements, fans will likely be picky about whether they watch the movie in a 4D/Dbox theater, IMAX theater, Dolby premium theater, or whether they stick to a standard 2D screening.

Previews will begin internationally starting Wednesday, while preview showings in the US and Canada will start at 3pm on Thursday.

Although the success of the Avatar re-release 13 years after its initial release suggests there’s still a lot of interest in the franchise, Cameron and his collaborators are taking a lot of risks with the new movie.

In addition to needing to make a staggering amount of money to break even, they also pin their hopes on 3D shows, which have fallen out of favor in recent years.

“It’s a big bet,” Sean Robbins, senior analyst at Boxoffice Pro, told CNN.

He added that Avatar: The Way Of Water “is one of the most difficult films in a long time” to predict its performance, “a large part of which is because of that 3D element”.

But viewers pay a premium for 3D viewings, so if they’re drawn to the format, that will overshadow the final result of the movie.

Avatar 2 also seems to book many more 3D and other premium screens than the first movie, which could naturally lead viewers to more profitable theaters.