Rooting Guide Week 15: Top results for playoff odds, draft placement

After the Minnesota Vikings completed the biggest comeback in NFL history, the Detroit Lions’ chances of winning the NFC North were officially dead. This was always the Lions’ longest shot in the postseason, but it’s still a little sad to see the end of their pie-in-the-sky fantasies.

Having said that, the Lions really got some big help this week thanks to the San Francisco 49ers, who defeated the Seattle Seahawks — one of the teams the Lions could jump into a playoff game. With the other two teams the Lions may need to jump out of — the New York Giants and Washington Chiefs — to play against each other Sunday night, this could be a pivotal week for Detroit’s postseason hopes. Of course, it all depends on the Lions putting a light upset on the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at our Week 15 rooting guide, for the best odds in playoffs and draft placement.

Playoff odds

Before we get into it, here’s an NFC matchup photo update, with Thursday and Saturday games in mind:

Department leaders:

  1. Al-Nusour: 12-1 – decided a playoff match
  2. Vikings: 11-3 – snatched NFC North
  3. 49ers: 10-4 – clinching the NFC West
  4. Pirates: 6-7

Wild Card Race (Top 3 Advance)

  1. Cowboys: 10-3
  2. Leaders: 7-5-1
  3. Giants: 7-5-1
  4. Seahawks: 7-7
  5. Black: 6-7
  6. Packers, Panthers, Falcons at 5-8

OK, on ​​to the proof;

Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10) – 1 p.m. ET – FOX

Root for: bears

Not only will this help the Lions in the draft, but it will keep the Eagles motivated to keep winning. With Philly so close to clinching the one seed, there’s a chance they’ll take a Week 18 break. We can’t have that, because they face the Giants — a team the Lions are very likely to jump on — that week. So giving the Cowboys a chance to catch them in the NFC East or the Vikings a chance to catch them as a #1 seed is a very big priority.

Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9) – 1 p.m. ET – FOX

Root for: saints

It probably doesn’t matter much, but if the Lions go 3-1 down the stretch, the Falcons could theoretically catch them.

Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8) – 1 p.m. ET – CBS

Root for: Steelers

The Panthers have quietly won three of their last four games and, like the Falcons, could theoretically catch up to the Lions if Detroit goes 3-1. Detroit has its own chance to bury Carolina next week, but why wasn’t she buried a week earlier?

Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8) – 1 p.m. ET – FOX

Root: cowboy

Detroit can’t catch up with Dallas, as they already have 10 wins and a tiebreaker over the Lions. Once again, we need Dallas to put as much pressure on the Eagles to be crowned this seed. It’s important for Dallas to have something to play for in the season finale as well, as they face the leaders in Week 18. If Philly wins the division early, there’s a very good chance Dallas will be tied for the four seeds. And you will have nothing to play in week 18.

So for the rest of the season: go cowboys! Bo Eagles! (unless they play giants or leaders)

Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7) – 4:25 p.m. ET – CBS

Root for: Bengals

AFC over NFC. And while the NFC South probably isn’t a real threat to the Lions’ playoff chances, why not count another loss?

Giants (7-5-1) at Leaders (7-5-1) – 8:20 p.m. ET – NBC

Root for: tie

Well, this might be an article of its own, but here’s the deal. With their current relationships, the Giants and Chiefs hold a 1.5-game lead over the Lions, which is basically the same thing as a two-game lead, because the Lions are unlikely to get a tie and make up half the game. . A win for either team converts that into a one-game lead (with the Lions winning) for the loser but the winner would still have a two-game lead.

However, a tie would drop each team to 7-5-2. Since ties are technically 0.5 wins and 0.5 losses, this record is basically the same thing as 8-6. If the Lions are theoretically 7-7, that means they’re just a game behind both teams – because they have the tiebreaker on both – not just one team.

What is the size of the tie for black? Look at the change in playoff odds for the Lions based on all three possible outcomes:

Model now:

  • Current Lions match odds: 20%
  • Odds of a tie: Unavailable
  • Odds of winning with NYG: 19%
  • Odds with WAS winning: 20%

FiveThirtyEight model:

  • Current Lions match odds: 25%
  • Odds of a tie: 35% (!!!!)
  • Odds of winning with NYG: 24%
  • Odds with WAS winning: 26%

As you can see, a win for either team hardly moves the needle in the Lions’ playoff odds, with a slight preference for a Washington win. However, a tie increases the Lions’ postseason probability by 10 percent! And if you combine the Giants League/Leaders with the Lions winning the Jets, The odds of a Lions playoff would jump to 52 percent, per FiveThirtyEight.

Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8) – Monday 8:15 PM ET – ESPN

Root: rams

Yes I know. position draft. But the Packers are hanging on to playoff chances so long, wouldn’t it be nice to see them almost eliminated in the final with just a few weeks left? You know deep in your heart that you would enjoy it.

The cutaway picture if all goes in the right direction:

Department leaders:

  1. Al-Nusour: 12-2 – decided the play-off match
  2. Vikings: 11-3 – snatched NFC North
  3. 49ers: 10-4 – clinching the NFC West
  4. Pirates: 6-8

Wild Card Race (Top 3 Advance)

  1. Cowboys: 11-3
  2. Leaders: 7-5-2
  3. Giants: 7-5-2
  4. Seahawks: 7-7
  5. Black: 7-7

If this week plays out perfectly, all three teams could theoretically jump ahead of them by next week and move up to the sixth seed!

Rooting guide for the draft position:

  • Bears (3-10) over Eagles (12-1)
  • Saints (4-9) over Falcons (5-8)
  • Jaguars (5-8) over Cowboys (10-3)
  • Texas (1-11-1) over Chiefs (10-3)

  • Broncos (3-10) over Cardinals (4-9)
  • Raiders (5-8) over Patriots (7-6)
  • Al-Hazm (5-8) over the Rams (4-9).
  • Panthers (5-8) at Steelers (5-8)

If you played all of these games as hopefully, here’s what the 2023 NFL standings will look like:

Note: The power of the schedule is from the Tankathon, and has not been adjusted for results from Week 15:

  1. Texas: 2-11-1 (.498 schedule power)
  2. Broncos (King of Seahawks): 4-10 (.480)
  3. Rams (King of Lions): 4-10 (.500)
  4. Cardinals: 4-10 (.518)
  5. Bears: 4-10 (.577)
  6. Colts: 4-9-1 (.504)
  7. Falcons: 5-9 (.451)
  8. Saints (King Eagles): 5-9 (.504)
  9. Steelers: 5-9 (.537)
  10. Raiders: 6-8 (.442)
  11. Panthers: 6-8 (.447)
  12. Tigers: 6-8 (.491)
  13. Browns (owned by Texans): 6-8 (.511)

  14. Beams: 6-8 (.564)

Detroit’s top pick would move to three, and be within striking distance of the Broncos. With the Rams and Broncos playing next week at Christmas, it will be an opportunity for this pick to jump into the top two.

Of course, it’s also worth noting that even if all of those results fall Detroit’s way this week, the Rams are still in danger of falling towards the bottom of the top 10 with one win. This is what happens when there are currently 13 teams with five or fewer wins, and the Rams have four wins already.

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