NFL Week 16 scenarios: Who benefits and loses with each score?

There are only three weeks left in the NFL regular season, and the playoff races are heating up as well as the races for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and the all-important first round for each conference. The AFC and NFC have two teams with a greater than 20 percent chance of taking over current wild card teams, and the AFC is narrowing toward a coin flip, but that’s not all that’s at stake during Week 16.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in position to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed this week, but Jalen Hurts’ availability against Dallas — and possibly long-term — is now in question. The Eagles are still very likely to clinch a bye, but their odds drop about 6 percent if they lose to the Cowboys on Saturday. But that’s not the only rippling effect of Hurts’ uncertainty. The Eagles play the Giants in Week 18, and a lack of a bye before the final week of the regular season could result in Philadelphia having to play for the win that week and potentially shake things up in the NFC wild card race.

As for the AFC’s top seed, the Bills are the current favorite at 59.1 percent, followed by the Chiefs at 37.3 percent. The Bengals are the third-most likely team to clinch, at 3.6 percent. It’s likely to be a two-team race, and with the Bills and Chiefs both close to double digits this weekend, it’s unlikely we’ll see much drama. However, if we do, and either the Bears or the Seahawks pull off an upset, the odds of earning a bye will swing dramatically.

Six teams are in the playoffs entering Week 16: The Bills and Chiefs in the AFC and the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, and Cowboys in the NFC. Three more AFC teams and one more NFC team could clinch berths this week, and the Bills and Eagles have milestones on the line as well.

Cincinnati clinches a playoff berth with a win in New England on Saturday or a Jets loss or tie against Jacksonville on Thursday.

The Chargers clinch a playoff berth with a win in Indianapolis on Monday and a host of losses or ties by the Raiders, Patriots, Jets and/or Dolphins.

The Crows are in any of ten scenarios involving wins or ties by their own side and wins, losses or draws by up to seven other teams. There is even a scenario that gets Baltimore regardless of its outcome if the Patriots and Jets lose, the Browns, Raiders and Titans lose or tie, and the Chargers win.

The Giants won a playoff game at Minnesota on Saturday and lost two of the three in Detroit, Seattle and Washington.

The Bills clinch the AFC East Championship with a win over Chicago on Saturday or a Dolphins loss to the Players on Sunday.

The Eagles won the NFC East with a win or tie in Dallas on Saturday and clinched the NFC home and first round advantage with a win or tie and a loss or tie by the Vikings.

However, as noted above, the Eagles’ injury status can have ripple effects throughout an NFC run. The AFC gives us a big Thursday Night Football showdown between the Jaguars and the Jets, two teams from the outside looking in now, but don’t overlook the Bengals at the Patriots because this game has major playoff implications and implications for the AFC North. After the board is cleared, there are 10 games through Week 16 that will move the needle for one or both of the participating teams. Let’s take a look at the potential swings in each team’s playoff odds if they win this week:

Jaguars at Jets, 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday

What if Jaguar wins?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

40.0 percent

+7.8%

5.0 percent

– 19.0 percent

What if the Jets win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

35.0 percent

+11.0 percent

28.3 percent

-3.9%

Hawks at Crows, 1 p.m. ET Saturday

What if the Falcons win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

9.4 percent

+6.4 per cent

84.5 percent

-9.4 percent

What if the crows win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

98.6 percent

+4.7 per cent

0.4 percent

-2.6%

Lions at Panthers, 1 p.m. EST on Saturday

What if black wins?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

72.2 percent

+14.6 per cent

6.4 percent

-4.4 percent

What if the Panthers win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

17.2 percent

+6.4 per cent

29.1 percent

-28.5 per cent

Seahawks at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET on Saturday

What if the Seahawks win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

46.6 percent

+27.6 per cent

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

8.20%

-29.1 percent

What if the bosses win?

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

44.4 percent

+7.1 per cent

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

11.1 percent

-7.9 percent

Giants at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET Saturday

What if the Giants win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

97.5 percent

+19.9 per cent

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

0.0 percent

-0.6%

What if the Vikings won?

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

2.5 percent

+1.9 percent

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

71.2 percent

-6.4 percent

Bengals at Patriots, 1 p.m. ET Saturday

What if the Bengals win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

100.0 percent

+0.4 per cent

6.9 percent

– 14.6%

What if the Patriots win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

35.5 percent

14.0 percent

99.0 percent

-0.6%

Leaders at 49ers, 4:05 p.m. ET Saturday

What if the leaders win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

69.2 percent

+30.5 percent

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

0.0 percent

-0.7%

What if the 49ers win?

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

2.5 percent

+1.8 percent

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

24.7%

-14.0 per cent

Eagles at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET Saturday

What if the Eagles win?

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

100.0 percent

+1.8 percent

0.0 percent

-0.5%

What if the Cowboys win?

Team Chances are 1-seed changes

2.3 percent

+1.8 percent

92.3 percent

-5.9 percent

Packers at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Packers win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

16.3 percent

+9.3 per cent

66.4 percent

-8.5%

What if the dolphins win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

82.3 percent

+7.4 per cent

1.5 percent

-5.5 per cent

Chargers at Colts, 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday

What if the charger wins?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

96.7 percent

+14.8 percent

0.0 percent

-0.2 per cent

What if the Colts win?

Team PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES changes

0.6 percent

+0.4 per cent

65.9 percent

-16.0 per cent

(Photo: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)


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