As the awards circus takes a mid-season break, let’s start zooming out to take stock of the Best Picture field.
Photo illustration: an eagle. photos: A24; Universal Pictures
Each week* between now and January 24, when the Oscar nominations are announced, Vulture will consult a crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Oscar race. in a “Oscar futuresWe’ll share insider gossip, analyze all-new developments, and track industry buzz to see who’s ahead, who’s down, and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
The awards circus is taking a mid-season break over the holidays: Between last week’s Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, and the Globes airing Jan. 10, there’s not much going on. So instead of making our usual top-down judgments, let’s embrace the spirit of the season, and zoom in to evaluate (c) the 12 award winners with the best chance of winning Oscar gold.
1. Everything everywhere at once
The multiverse hit isn’t too Oscar-winning to believe it could be a frontrunner. But consider this: Few other films in the running can match its combination of critical acclaim, box office success, heart-string appeal, and pure originality. The Original Picture and Screenplay nominations seem like locks, and the three acting nominations are likely the floor.
However, if you were looking for a reason to doubt that this gonzo comedy about generational trauma could go very far, this week’s Oscar shortlists might be it. In the first sample of actual Academy members, EEAAO He missed cutting in visual effects, make-up and hairstyling. This is not fatal. Nightmare Alleya much weaker contender, fared poorly on last year’s shortlists and remains a Best Picture candidate — but it’s a reminder that a great film passing through the precursors of a tastemaker may not be guaranteed to be a repeat once we enter the industry stage.
if Everything is everywhere It really proves not to be the Academy’s cup of tea, so does it benefit a movie that everyone agrees is right on the Oscar sweet spot? Steven Spielberg’s film diary may also have been created in a lab to capture the hearts and minds of Academy members: it’s a deeply personal project from a living legend working through complex feelings about his family’s history and the art form that served him for 50 years.
But her reputation as an early front-runner may be working against her. anyway Fablemans More spiky than he looks, it’s all too easy for those who haven’t seen the movie to write him off as schmaltz. It feels a bit like dog power He did last year – a very strong contender on paper, but the fact that people seem reluctant to get behind her suggests she hasn’t quite sealed the deal. also like dog powera credible alternative to Spielberg in the Best Director race yet to emerge.
3. Anisherin from Inisherin
Keep up with Martin McDonagh’s Irish Homecoming EEAAO By Critical Precursors, preliminary results indicate it will be a solid acting play: The film looks likely to attract four acting nominations, with Colin Farrell and Kerry Condon having good chances at winning in their respective categories. In addition to, Banshee It looks like the kind of calm and cuddly pic that gets a boost from preferential balloting. Good creek.
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Almost every season around this time, commentators set out to prove that the Academy can win back the hearts of casual moviegoers by awarding the highest-grossing movie of the year. Usually, these campaigns are doomed to failure, however Top Gun: Maverick He has a solid narrative that his predecessors didn’t: “Reward the movie that saved theaters!” (The movie’s fan base is much older than that Spider-Man: No way homeHelps, too.) If Joseph Kosinski starts cracking the Best Director lineup, we’ll know Maverick He is a real threat.
Cate Blanchett will star with Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress, but what about the big category? For a certain section of the internet — which just so happens to overlap with readers of this particular site — Todd Field’s high-profile cultural drama is the movie of the year. Many groups of critics agree, but if there’s a movie that doesn’t appeal to the types of people who fill it in THRAnonymous Oscars cards, these.
6. Avatar: Water Road
It did very well at the box office (even if initial reports fell a little short of expectations) and it’s been featured everywhere you need to be, including on the Oscar shortlists. Does it break up The bestor does The best disassembled?
One of many to benefit from a somewhat disappointing end-of-year harvest, ElvisDomestic revenues of $150 million look better compared to the meager profits of its competitors. Austin Butler looks like a lock for Best Actor, and even Baz Luhrmann could make up for it red mill Also disrespectful to the manager.
8. The woman speaks
This is the kind of film that Oscar-hating people imagine every Oscar movie has to offer: a tough, unsatisfying drama about a group of Mennonite women who decide the appropriate response to institutionalized sexual assault. But why should we give these people all the power? The film finally opens this week, and though it has lost some of its luster after some notable reviews, the critical love for Sarah Polley’s heartwarming and sympathetic rival should ensure that it stays in the hunt.
I admit to being a little stumped Babylon, a movie that many of its loudest supporters seem to concede is at least half terrible. But she tracks well, and her hometown edge and impeccable crafts have kept her in the running. Making the shortlist for the score was predictable; Getting into Sound, Makeup & Hairstyling is also a sign that there’s real wine in this glass.
10. Glass Onion: Takes the mystery out of the cutlery
If the original Take out the knives He couldn’t get into Best Picture, what are the chances of a sequel to the movie? There is another venue available this year, and sure-fire contenders are scarce compared to the time Take out the knives Run in 2019. Plus, it helps glass onion It has become Netflix’s top priority almost by default.
11. All Quiet on the Western Front
Speaking of Netflix, the player may have another contender on its hands with Germany’s official Oscar entry, which surprisingly showed up strong in the shortlists, cracking scores, sound, visual effects, makeup and hairdos to match the expected showing in the International film. Its flowing depiction of trench warfare in World War I won’t be for everyone, but all that blood and guts is clearly getting a response from the academy’s craft squad. Could Edward Berger Be This Year’s Iconic Foreign Language Director?
This year’s darling underdog took a few hits on the shortlists, with the only field that cracked being the original song of “Natto Natto.” (Thank God he got in there.) I still think there’s enough passion to make this a possibility, but maybe we should take it on faith. Free shows in NYC during the holidays is a fun game.
In alphabetical order: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (He has a legitimate acting rival in Angela Bassett, and has done well on the shortlists); No (hangs there); Sadness triangle (must do well with international voters), Whale (Good average per screen indicates Brendan Fraser’s comeback run made an impact), The King’s Woman (Viola Davis looks good, but the movie itself only made the shortlist for the score.)
* After this week, Oscar Futures is taking a vacation. We will be back in January.
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