Dolphins vs Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction: The Christmas Underdog Bet

Dolphins versus the odds packets

The NFL Christmas Day roster kicks off with a matchup between two of the highest paid quarterbacks against the spread. Aaron Rodgers has a 125-91-4 (58%) ATS all time, while Tua Tagovailoa has an ATS mark of 19-13-1 (59%).

So which Packers vs Dolphins side should you be on to kick off the holiday betting festivities? Read on for more analysis below before making your choice.

Packages vs dolphin matching analysis

Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how the Packers and Dolphins match up statistically:

Packers vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
General DVOA 7 18
Pass DVOA 14 26
Rush DVOA 3 11
General DVOA 3 22
Pass DVOA 2 8
Rush DVOA 11 32

The Packers offense is brought into shape just in time for the extended run, averaging 26.6 points per game over the last five games after posting just 17.1 per game over the first nine.

Rodgers should be able to discern a Dolphins defense that allows the third-highest completion rate (68.3%) and sixth-most passing yards per game (246.3) while intercepting passes at the fourth-lowest rate (1.3%).

Green Bay vs Miami FanDuel bet

Graphically, the Dolphins play a coverage man in third-highest rate and offense in seventh-highest, and defensive coordinator Josh Boyer has stuck to that philosophy despite a troubled secondary and a low year as a top cornerback. Xavien Howard, whose PFF coverage score of 54.1 ranks 95th from 121 qualifying corners.

Even at this point in Rodgers’ career, this type of strategy tends to be futile, as he scores third against the blitz and averages more yards per attempt against a man than he does against the area.

Christian Watson gives Rodgers a legitimate bat on the outside. The rookie second-round pick averages 4.29 yards per tackle against a covering man this season, which ranks second in the league among 96 eligible wide receivers, according to PFF.

Watson’s presence opens up the entire offense and takes the pressure off Allen Lazard, who is quietly in the top 25 yards per run versus man coverage (2.30) as well.

The Packers have been second in the offensive DVOA since Week 10, and not surprisingly, their rise coincides with Watson’s three-touchdown breakaway game against the Cowboys — beginning a five-game stretch that saw him score an incredible eight touchdowns while averaging 71.8 yards receiving per game.

The Dolphins’ best asset on defense is their ability to stop the run, but the Packers boast a rushing offense in the top three. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and company snuck for 138 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last week against the Rams’ fifth-ranked rushing defense, so I expect the Packers to be able to run despite facing an above-average rush defense.

Miami ranks 27th in third-division conversion rate allowed (43.7%) and 26th in red zone conversion rate allowed (62.0%), so the Packers are the number one in moving the ball and scoring points.

Of course, we should expect the Dolphins to do the same when they have the ball, as they’ve averaged 27.0 points in 11 games that Tagovailoa has started and finished. But while the Packers offense is hitting its stride, the Dolphins offense has hit a bump in the road.

Tagovailoa leads the league in DVOA passes to quarterback, and it also leads the league in passes attempted to midfield (47%), but defenses are starting to put defenders in the right positions to deflect those throws. and completely disable the timing of the pass violation.

This has led to a significant drop in Tagovailoa’s efficiency over the last four matches compared to the first eight matches:

  • First eight matches: 71.0% completion rate, 9.13 yards per attempt, 7.3% touchdown rate, 1.2% interception rate
  • Last four matches: 52.8% completion rate, 7.66 yards per attempt, 4.7% touchdown rate, 1.6% interception rate

Excluding the completion rate, these are still decent numbers, but a far cry from the elite level he showed early in the season. The result was a less consistent offense that has turned in just 25.5% of third downs over the past four games.

Players’ defensive coordinator Joe Barry is rightly criticized at times for his heavy lineup, but coverage tends to restrict opponents down the middle. The Packers are 12th in the DVOA on quarterback passes, including third quarterback passes exceeding 15 yards.

And despite a rocky start to the season that saw Justin Jefferson dust them for 184 yards in Week 1, the Packers’ secondary only allows 135.2 yards per game to wide receivers (135.2), which bodes well when facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I’d be careful not to put too much stock in the Dolphins’ three-game losing streak — the 49ers, Chargers and Bills are formidable opponents — but I also think it’s clear to anyone who watched those games that there’s more to the recent offense’s struggles than just the strength of the schedule.

The Essentials boast a top-eight pass defense in their own right and should be able to replicate much of what worked tactically for those teams against the Dolphins’ offense.

Green Bay’s weakness comes in defense against the run, but while Mike McDaniel has overseen a heavy offense as the 49ers’ offensive coordinator, as the Dolphins’ head coach, his offense sits at 22.4 rushes per game (second fewest in the league).

Interestingly enough, the Dolphins have completely lost out on two of their top three rushing performances this season.

It’s also worth noting that there is rain in the forecast, but I don’t think it gives either team an advantage, as the Longbacks have the best offense and worst defense in this game, while the Dolphins have the best offensive passing and worst passing. defense.

Once upon a time, there was a narrative that playing at Florida State was Rodgers’ kryptonite after he had some bad games there in the late quarters, but he’s gone 4-2 ATS at The Sunshine State since 2014.

The Packers’ strengths mesh well with the Dolphins’ weaknesses, but the same cannot necessarily be said in reverse.

The Dolphins have hit the ground running this year while the Packers have stumbled out of the gate, but in their current form, they’re evenly matched despite what an 8-6 vs. 6-8 matchup might indicate.

In fact, the underdogs have historically been crushed in Week 16 when facing opponents like the Dolphins. According to our Action Labs data, week 16 road underdogs have gone 46-24-3 (66%) ATS since 2005 when they faced an opponent with 6-8 wins.

This is also the kind of spot you want to support Rodgers. Since Matt LaFleur became the Green Bay head coach, Rodgers is an 11-4 ATS as a dog, covering an average of 2.8 points per game and winning 10 of those 15 games outright.

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